Lebanon’s new government leads to new, more promising phase: Analysts

Lebanon announced the formation of a new cabinet on Saturday after nearly three years of political paralysis, amid one of the worst socioeconomic crises in its history. The key question now is whether this new 24-member government, headed by the widely respected Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, can lead the country toward stability and begin implementing the urgent reforms required to unlock international aid.

The challenges facing Salam’s government are immense. These include, but are not limited to, bringing Hezbollah’s weapons under state control, tackling corruption, and establishing an independent judiciary.

“Lebanon faces a unique window of opportunity, where Hezbollah is weakened and no longer in a position to derail reform efforts or enforce its will on the country’s decision-making process,” Randa Slim, a fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute of Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), told Al Arabiya English.

A crucial deadline is fast approaching: on February 18, Israel is expected to withdraw its forces from Lebanon. Beirut has pledged to deploy the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) along the border with Israel to coordinate with the UN peacekeeping force (UNIFIL) to ensure Hezbollah’s fighters and weapons are removed from the area. The United States has stressed the need for Israel’s full withdrawal after the yearlong war between Hezbollah and Israel. The original deadline for the end of January was extended by the US, which brokered and mediated the deal last November. Officials familiar with US intelligence told Al Arabiya English the LAF’s deployment in the south significantly increased over the last few weeks. Deputy Special Presidential Envoy for Middle East Peace Morgan Ortagus toured the southern part of Lebanon during her visit with the US delegation this week.

In his first comments after the new government was announced, Salam emphasized that reform would be the priority, which requires both security and stability. This, he stated, would be achieved by fully implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and the US-brokered ceasefire agreement that ended the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. Salam committed to ensuring that Israel withdraws “to the last inch of Lebanese territory.” Reconstruction of areas devastated by Israeli bombardment will also be a primary focus, signaling the new government’s commitment to not abandoning Hezbollah’s Shia allies in the Amal Movement.

Both Salam and President Joseph Aoun have been clear about their intention to ensure the state’s monopoly over all weapons and arms, a stance that directly challenges Hezbollah, which has controlled Lebanon’s war and peace decisions for decades. Hezbollah has also used its weapons internally against Lebanese citizens and politicians and has been accused of being behind dozens of assassinations, in coordination with the former Assad regime.

Top US officials recently visited Beirut and reiterated that the Trump administration did not want Hezbollah to be represented in the new government. They also expressed dissatisfaction with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri's Amal Movement retaining control of the finance ministry, a position Berri has held since 2014. Ultimately, however, Hezbollah and Amal both secured ministries, with Berri’s pick remaining in charge of finance.

Nevertheless, Hezbollah no longer has veto power or what is referred to as a “blocking third” in third in the government after its Christian allies, the Free Patriotic Movement, were excluded.

Firas Maksad, Senior Fellow and Director for Strategic Outreach at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, noted that while the new government involved some compromises, “the election of President Aoun and the selection of Nawaf Salam as prime minister undoubtedly herald a new and more promising phase for Lebanon.”

The US quickly welcomed the new government and called for a ministerial statement that would help Lebanon “turn the corner and chart a path toward rebuilding state institutions, fighting corruption, and implementing crucial reforms.” The White House referred Al Arabiya English to the statement from the US Embassy in Beirut, which also commended Salam’s comments “to ensure security and stability in Lebanon by completing the implementation of UNSCR 1701 and obligations under the cessation of hostilities.”

Slim said it was in the interest of the Trump administration to ensure the success of this government in implementing a reform and reconstruction agenda.

A promising sign for the new government is the presence of ministers with reputable credentials, as well as a record number of women in the cabinet, which has instilled optimism.

The British ambassador to Lebanon, Hamish Cowell, also hailed the new cabinet and Salam’s commitment to urgent reforms. He stated that the UK looks forward to working with the new government to support reforms and strengthen “Lebanon’s stability and prosperity.”

Salam’s second priority is to restore trust between the Lebanese state and its citizens, as well as rebuild Lebanon’s relationships with Arab neighbors and the international community. Diplomatic ties with the Gulf states deteriorated in recent years due to Hezbollah’s influence and its involvement in the Yemen war in support of the Houthis. However, there are signs of renewed interest in Lebanon. Last month, Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan visited Beirut—marking the first visit by a top Saudi diplomat in nearly 15 years. Similarly, the UAE reopened its embassy in Beirut after a closure of over three years.

Maksad stressed that this was a “critically important transition period for the country.” He added: “Ultimately the cabinet will be judged on its implementation of the ceasefire agreement with Israel, filling numerous government vacancies with capable candidates, and paving the way for fair and timely parliamentary and local elections [next] Spring.”

Lebanon has consistently squandered opportunities to unlock international aid. Hezbollah’s actions thwarted a $3 billion Saudi grant in 2016 aimed at boosting the LAF and Internal Security Forces (ISF). An international conference later held in Paris raised $11 billion in pledges, but Lebanon failed to implement the necessary reforms to receive the aid. Nationwide anti-government protests broke out in 2019, followed by an economic and financial collapse, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the 2020 Beirut Port explosion.

And with a caretaker government in place since 2022, Hezbollah decided to attack Israel the day of the Oct. 7 Hamas attack in 2023. This led to a crushing Israeli military campaign that decapitated the group’s leadership, destroyed large swathes of its weapons, displaced millions of Lebanese citizens and reduced many parts of the country into rubble.

Now, with Lebanon again facing the prospect of international support for reconstruction, it competes with neighboring Syria, which is also vying for funds and sanctions relief following the collapse of the Assad regime and the 60-year rule of the Baath Party.

“There is no time to waste,” PM Salam urged. “Let us begin working immediately.”