More tankers and dry bulk carriers turn away from the Red Sea

While there have been no attacks by the Houthis from Yemen on merchant shipping this year, shipowners are still giving the Red Sea a wide berth to the consternation of the Suez Canal Authority. Indeed, for shipping’s two largest sectors, the number of ships avoiding the Red Sea has actually increased this year.

According to data from Jefferies, an investment bank, diversions have increased in the tanker and dry cargo segments. Dry bulk diversions are up to 56% of 2023 figures so far this year, up from 45% in 2024; crude tanker diversions have risen to 48% from 35% and product tankers are up to 52% from 45%.

Containership traffic has continued to divert with transits in the region in 2025 down 90% relative to figures in 2023. This is steady with diversions seen in 2024, while LNG and LPG have continued to divert at the same pace as seen in 2024 with 80% and 74% of capacity, respectively, bypassing the region so far this year.

Data from ABG Sundal Collier shows that overall Gulf of Aden arrivals are down 72% from the 2023 average, something that has badly affected the Egyptian economy with revenues at the Suez. Canal Authority plummeting.

Ralph Leszczynski, head of research at Banchero Costa, told Splash that there are currently around 200 Red Sea crossings per week, based on AIS tracking data. This is still less than half of the number of crossings of two years ago, which were about 500 per week.

The Houthis said on Tuesday that they are resuming a ban on the passage of all Israeli ships in the Red Sea, Arabian Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait after a four-day deadline they gave Israel to allow humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip expired.

The description of what constitutes Israeli in the statement was deemed ambiguous by Ambrey, a British maritime security specialist.

Ambrey is advising merchant shipping to check their affiliation with the Houthi target profile and to reassess the risk to voyages through the Red Sea, and the Gulf of Aden.

“The situation is arguably still dangerous in the Red Sea, given that the truce in Gaza is fragile, sectarian conflict in Syria has been heating up again, and the US government has been making incendiary comments on Gaza and Iran in recent weeks, so it is believed that there is a possibility Houthi attacks could well restart at short notice. Hence many owners still prefer to play safe and avoid risking their ships and their crews’ lives,” commented Leszczynski from Banchero Costa.

Whilst no actual attacks have at this point been reported since the Houthi announcement on Tuesday, the office of the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) has reported electronic interference seen from multiple ships in the region disrupting navigational systems and requiring vessels to use backup methods.

After more than 100 ships were attacked from late 2023 and throughout last year, the Houthis had ceased its campaign against merchant shipping this year, in line with the tentative peace deal struck between Israel and Hamas.

There is little sign authorities believe the Red Sea shipping crisis is coming to an end anytime soon.

The European Union announced last month it is extending the mandate of its maritime security operation, EUNAVFOR Aspides, for an additional year, reinforcing efforts to safeguard freedom of navigation in the Red Sea region. The operation will now continue until February 28, 2026, with a budget of over €17m ($17.8m) allocated for its extended period.

As and when the Red Sea does open up for merchant ship traffic will drive profits and losses for many shipping companies this year.

Top management at Maersk laid out last month how the Houthis could dictate the line between black or red ink for the coming year.

Maersk’s EBIT forecast for 2025 ranges from zero to $3bn, depending on whether the Red Sea opens in the middle of the year or the end of the year.