UNSC uneasy over growing ISIL, Al-Shabaab presence in the Horn

A report presented to the UN Security Council indicates the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) faction in Somalia is witnessing an influx of foreign fighters from Ethiopia, Morocco, Sudan, Tanzania, Syria, and Yemen.

The 171-page report presented by the Panel of Experts on Somalia and Al-Shabaab reveals that security forces in Puntland have arrested dozens of foreign fighters over the past year, with detainees confirming the presence of a significant number of foreign fighters training in small groups with trainers from the Middle East.

The report notes Puntland, which is located only 130 nautical miles from Yemen, serves as a “strategic bridge” between the Horn and the Gulf, and has been used by extremist groups to move and train its fighters, smuggle weapons and generate income through various illicit activities, as well as tax collection (zakawat) from businesses in Bosaso and elsewhere in Somalia, including in Mogadishu.

ISIL-Somalia has expanded its base of operations in Puntland as part of the growing collaboration with Al-Shabaab and Houthis in Yemen, according to the report.

Somalia’s security forces are struggling to keep up with the opaque use of cryptocurrency in financial transactions involving these groups, while none of the top leadership of ISIL-Somalia or the Al-Karrar office is currently listed under any United Nations sanctions regime, according to the report.

Experts estimate the influx of foreign fighters has doubled the size of the ISIL force to up to 700 fighters in Puntland.

The report indicates that Al-Shabaab continues to carry out cross-border attacks into Kenya, in particular in the north-eastern counties of Garissa, Lamu, Mandera, and Wajir along the border with Somalia.

It also suggests that Al-Shabaab has been involved in the trafficking of women and girls from Kenya to Somalia for sexual slavery and forced marriages, using various means, including deception, coercion and abduction.

The report notes evidence that Al-Shabaab received income of more than USD 150 million in 2023, from its extensive financial operations, including the identification of new products such as scrap metals and new tariffs and taxation.

“Al-Shabaab continues to have a strong financial base deriving from the illegal taxation of all economic activities and all products transiting through areas under their control, including property levies,” it reads.

The fundamentalist group continues to rely on seizing weapons, ammunition and military equipment from ATMIS and the Somali National Army to arm its members. The report warns attacks on these bases may occur more often in light of the ongoing ATMIS drawdown.

“The safe and secure management of weapons and ammunition in Somalia remains challenging owing to illicit weapons trafficking, lack of accountability over heavily armed clan militias and the limited analysis and tracing capacity regarding seized weapons, ammunition and improvised explosive devices. Weapons seized from Al-Shabaab were manufactured as recently as 2021, proving that the group maintains access to illicit weapons supplies,” it reads.

Weapons are often smuggled into Somalia using fishing vessels, according to the report, and trafficking has been on the rise following the lifting of a three-decade long arms embargo on Somalia last year.

Al-Shabaab is looking to lean more heavily into drone warfare, building on its previous practice of using unmanned aerial vehicles for surveillance purposes, according to the Panel.

Al-Shabaab continues to claim its highest number of attacks in Somalia’s South-West State, where there have been no major gains made by the Somali National Army during the reporting period.

“Ethiopian forces, including as part of ATMIS, currently provide protection in major towns and cities under the control of the Government in Baidoa, Ceel Barde, Dinsoor, Hudur and Waajid, as well as Baardheere, Garbaharrey and Luuq in Gedo in Jubaland,” reads the report.

The Panel also found evidence of a re-emergence of piracy along the coastline of Somalia.

Recommendations

The Panel wants to see the Somali government to facilitate its access to suspected Al-Shabaab members and other persons of interest held in custody, including detainees held on terrorism, terrorist financing, weapon smuggling and piracy-related charges.

Experts urge for regional member states to address the resurgence of ISIL-Somalia through strengthened coordination and cooperation on counter-terrorism investigations, including the movement of foreign fighters across regional borders.

The report calls on member states and specialized agencies to facilitate a coordination mechanism between the Mogadishu and Hargeisa financial intelligence units and reporting entities, the financial and non-financial institutions and law enforcement agencies, to facilitate collaboration.

Experts urge the African Union to remain on high alert during the ongoing transition from ATMIS to AUSSOM and call on member states to equip the Somali government with offshore patrol capability and coast guard stations to enhance maritime security by countering piracy and other illicit maritime activities.